In the 19th century, sea captains had few accurate charts to sail by, relying instead on word-of-mouth experiences and the opinions of other captains to anticipate potential challenges on the journey ahead.
In a similar spirit, we offer this forward-looking discussion for pool and spa dealers preparing for the spring and summer of 2025. While there are some risky shoals out there — such as ordering amid rising product costs — there are also opportunities, as demand remains relatively strong by historical standards.
Retailers across the country have been making critical decisions — ones that could define their year. Inventory planning is always a delicate balance, but in a market that has seen extreme highs and lows over the past few years, the stakes feel even higher.
Some dealers are optimistic, predicting steady growth, while others are more cautious, watching economic trends, consumer behavior, and, of course, the weather as they prepare. One thing is certain: Every retailer has made strategic choices based on their past experiences and future expectations. The Grit Game team spoke with several industry leaders to get a firsthand look at how they’re approaching the upcoming season.
SHIFTING STRATEGIES FOR A NEW MARKET
In New York, Joe Cimino, president of Dolphin Pools, has taken a highly focused approach to inventory. “The inflated COVID buying patterns have come to a halt, and the focus has been on maximizing profitability via smaller ticket items,” says Cimino. Like many retailers, he recognizes that fine-tuning inventory to match current demand is key to maintaining financial health. Instead of carrying a wide assortment of big-ticket items, the company is being more selective, ensuring that every stocked product aligns with customer needs and purchasing trends. This strategy helps them maintain a lean inventory while still meeting demand for high-end products when necessary.
But one of his biggest concerns is one that’s impossible to control: the weather. “So far, 2025 has been uncooperative. It’s been the coldest winter in years, and it makes forecasting the spring opening season worrisome.”
Yet, despite the uncertainty, Cimino remains confident in his plan. When asked on a scale of one to 10 how confident he was in his 2025 inventory preparedness, Cimino responded 10. “We work shoulder to shoulder with the staff and pay attention to what our customer base is asking for and purchasing.” His biggest takeaway from past seasons? “You cannot be everything to everybody. We’re focusing on what we do best for our customer base.”
RIDING THE WAVE OF GROWTH
For some retailers, the outlook for 2025 is bright.
“We’re probably going to have a very good year. I expect a 10% growth,” says Gary Burnett of Burnett Pools Inc. in Ohio. Like many in the industry, he recognizes the limitations of relying solely on retail sales, so he’s shifting focus: “We’re also focused on increasing our service side through the next year since retail can only increase so much.”
This diversification is a common theme among retailers looking to solidify their revenue streams. With economic uncertainty looming, many businesses are prioritizing stability by expanding into service offerings, ensuring consistent income even if discretionary retail spending fluctuates. Expanding service offerings not only provides a steady revenue stream but also builds stronger relationships with customers, making them more likely to return for future purchases.
CHALLENGES ON THE HORIZON
Despite careful planning, concerns remain. For Paul Como Jr., owner of Pool Doctor in East Northport, N.Y., forecasting for 2025 is complicated.
Como notes a continued shift toward online shopping, particularly for toys and accessories. “The trend of our customer base has been more empowered to buy these items online, and COVID, in many ways, drove this business even further in the direction of e-commerce. Pricing is also very difficult to compete with.”
Another common challenge among a multitude of pool pros? Employee retention. Seasonal businesses often struggle with keeping trained staff year after year, and for many, this remains a top priority. Finding and retaining skilled employees ensures a higher level of service, which can be a key differentiator in a competitive market.
“As long as we can keep our numbers on par from the last few years, we’ll be okay,” Como adds.
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM: A MARKET RESET
Others see 2025 as a return to normal after the surge of demand fueled by COVID-era stimulus money.
“It’s going to be better. I think we hit a significant slump when all the COVID money ran out, and we’re coming back into either normal or good,” explains Reid Scott of Scott Pools, Inc. in Indiana. The company adjusted its early buys carefully, considering previous carryover inventory. “We would have been a little heavier on our early buys, but because we went heavy during the COVID years, we had some carryover, so the early buys were more in line with what’s ‘normal’ — but only because of that.”
Retailers like Scott are focusing on maintaining efficiency, using past seasons’ lessons to avoid overbuying and keeping inventory levels in check. Many retailers are becoming more selective in their purchasing strategies, ensuring they invest in the right mix of products to maximize profitability without taking on excess financial risk.
LEVERAGING DATA FOR SMARTER INVENTORY DECISIONS
For some retailers, technology and data analytics are becoming increasingly vital tools in the inventory planning process.
“For 2025, our buying decisions are driven by data-driven forecasting to better project inventory needs,” says Dapo Fadeyi, president of E-Konomy Pool Service & Supplies in New York. He emphasizes the importance of agility in today’s market: “We’re seeing continued demand for core, high-volume items, while specialty products fluctuate more. Staying agile is key, especially in an inflationary environment, where maintaining competitive pricing is essential.”
One of his biggest concerns is overstocking. “Excess inventory can tie up resources unnecessarily. Thankfully, our next-day ordering flexibility allows us to efficiently manage one-off or less common items without the burden of stocking.”
To mitigate risk, Fadeyi is leaning deeper into technology. “We’re using data analytics and AI to refine our inventory planning. By focusing on patterns in customer buying habits and local market shifts, we’re better positioned to stock smarter, reduce excess inventory, and capitalize on high-demand products.” The use of AI-driven insights helps retailers anticipate market shifts with greater accuracy, allowing them to pivot quickly when needed.
THE 2025 TAKEAWAY: SMART, STRATEGIC AND FOCUSED
As the 2025 season unfolds, pool retailers are proving that success isn’t just about making the right bet — it’s about smart planning, adaptability, and knowing their customers. Some are predicting growth, while others are cautiously watching market trends and shifting consumer behaviors. The strategies may differ, but the goal is the same: a winning season built on careful forecasting and maximizing profitability.
Whether it’s shifting to more service-oriented models, optimizing inventory, or harnessing the power of data, one thing is clear: The pool retail industry is evolving, and those who plan wisely are best positioned to ride the wave into a successful year.
This article first appeared in the April 2025 issue of AQUA Magazine — the top resource for retailers, builders and service pros in the pool and spa industry. Subscriptions to the print magazine are free to all industry professionals. Click here to subscribe.
