The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) decreased slightly in November, the fourth decline this year, indicating that employment growth in the US — an economic factor upon which sales growth in the pool and spa industry depends — is still precarious.
“The Employment Trends Index remains weak and suggests that employment growth over the next several months is likely to slow again,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “Employment growth typically lags economic growth, and with the economy expected to decelerate in the current quarter and early 2013, a slowdown in employment won’t be far behind.” November’s decline in the ETI was driven by a large negative contribution from Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS))
Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
Job Openings (BLS)
Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
